NAIROBI, Kenya, July 4, 2025 – Kenya’s cross-border commerce recorded a sluggish begin to 2025, with newest knowledge displaying a decline in each export receipts and import spending throughout a number of international markets.
The efficiency displays a cautious international commerce atmosphere formed by shifting demand, risky commodity costs, and rising regional realignments.
New knowledge from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) exhibits that export earnings fell by 6.9 p.c within the first quarter, dropping to Sh276.7 billion from Sh297.3 billion throughout the identical interval in 2024.
Africa, which stays Kenya’s largest export market, accounting for almost 37 p.c of complete exports, noticed a notable 10 p.c decline in commerce volumes. Shipments to key regional locations—together with Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—dropped considerably, pointing to regional demand weaknesses or logistical constraints.
There have been, nonetheless, pockets of resilience. Exports to Burundi and South Africa recorded progress of 46.9 p.c and seven.5 p.c, respectively, partially cushioning the broader drop throughout the continent.
Trade with Asia, which kinds an important a part of Kenya’s exterior sector, declined much more sharply. Export receipts from Asia fell by 17.7 p.c to Sh66.1 billion. This was attributed largely to lowered tea shipments and decrease volumes of re-exported jet gasoline, significantly to the Gulf states.
In Europe, flower and tea exports continued to hunch, resulting in a ten.4 p.c dip in export earnings, particularly from long-standing companions just like the Netherlands and the UK. An increase in espresso exports to Belgium was a uncommon vivid spot within the European commerce profile.
Kenya’s commerce with the Americas additionally contracted. Export earnings from the area fell to Sh21.3 billion, weighed down by lowered shipments of titanium and jet gasoline. These modifications mark a broader sample of softening demand for Kenya’s conventional export merchandise throughout a number of international areas.
On the import entrance, the nation’s invoice shrunk by 4.5 p.c to Sh652.3 billion throughout the identical interval. Imports from Europe, America, and Africa all declined, in keeping with a extra cautious commerce stance and decrease international commodity costs.
Asia, nonetheless, continued to dominate Kenya’s import panorama, accounting for greater than two-thirds of the full. Imports from China rose to Sh148.6 billion, reinforcing the nation’s function as Kenya’s prime buying and selling associate. Petroleum imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) additionally elevated through the quarter.
An sudden rise got here from Australia, with imports leaping from Sh861 million to Sh4.1 billion, primarily pushed by elevated sorghum shipments—presumably in response to larger home demand or gaps in native provide.
The KNBS knowledge factors to a blended outlook for Kenya’s commerce sector in 2025. While some markets are displaying indicators of restoration or resilience, general momentum is constrained by broader financial uncertainty and sector-specific setbacks.
Trade analysts say the approaching quarters will likely be crucial for observing whether or not diversification methods and ongoing regional commerce initiatives can revive momentum and shield towards additional exterior shocks.
