The current go to of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, National Leader of the Turkmen People and Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, to Azerbaijan on July 16–17 could not have produced any signed agreements, however it carried a weight of strategic symbolism that can not be ignored. In some ways, this was a go to much less about paperwork and extra about course — and that course, unmistakably, factors towards nearer alignment between Ashgabat and Baku.
For two days, Berdimuhamedov and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev engaged in wide-ranging discussions, explored the scale of cooperation, and set the tone for a brand new chapter in bilateral relations. From formal receptions and casual visits to the Sea Breeze resort to a high-profile journey to Karabakh — the place Berdimuhamedov was gifted a Karabakh horse named Dostlug (“friendship”) — the message was clear: Turkmenistan is able to reengage, and Azerbaijan is receptive.
President Ilham Aliyev and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov had joint dinner in Shusha/AZERTAC
This warming of ties comes after a traditionally turbulent previous. In the post-Soviet Nineteen Nineties, the 2 international locations discovered themselves locked in a dispute over an offshore oil subject within the Caspian Sea, found by Azerbaijani geologists within the Eighties. What Azerbaijan referred to as Kyapaz and Turkmenistan known as Sardar (initially named Aralyk, that means “center”) grew to become a geopolitical flashpoint. Years of impasse adopted. It was solely in 2021 that the 2 sides lastly signed a Memorandum of Understanding to collectively discover and develop the sphere, rebranding it — aptly — as Dostlug.
So what has modified? Quite merely, Turkmenistan must step out of the shadows. The Berdimuhamedov period has not ended along with his presidential resignation in 2022 — removed from it. The former president nonetheless pulls the levers of energy, directs strategic insurance policies, and represents the nation overseas. His affect over overseas coverage — particularly towards Russia, China, and now, more and more, Azerbaijan and Central Asia — stays paramount.
His current regional tour by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan emphasised not simply diplomacy, however cultural and historic affinity. His symbolic selection to go to Turkistan, the non secular coronary heart of the Turkic world, reasonably than Kazakhstan’s capital, was no accident. It was an announcement of belonging — and ambition.
That ambition is now shifting westward, towards Azerbaijan and the European vitality market.
The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline — lengthy a dream, often derailed — is again in severe dialogue. With Russia entangled in geopolitical quagmires and Iran weakened by home turmoil and worldwide sanctions, the 2 major opponents of the mission have misplaced their grip. A once-impossible concept now feels believable, even obligatory.
The Trans/Caspian fuel pipeline/Wikipedia
The stakes are huge. With the EU scrambling for alternate options to Russian fuel, and the U.S. explicitly endorsing a Turkmenistan–Azerbaijan–Europe pipeline (as acknowledged by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio this May), the timing has by no means been higher.
But hurdles stay — most notably, funding. Even at a lowered scale, the mission may price $400–600 million if carried out as a connection between two offshore fields — Azerbaijan’s Azeri–Chirag–Guneshli and Turkmenistan’s Banka Livanova. That is, maybe, a small worth to pay for geopolitical relevance and financial diversification.
Let’s not overlook: Turkmenistan spent practically $5 billion constructing the town of Arkadag. Financing a strategic fuel hyperlink needs to be nicely inside its means — assuming the political will is matched by motion.
Berdimuhamedov’s go to was not a routine diplomatic courtesy. It was a calculated sign — an indication of Turkmenistan’s intent to reposition itself on the regional chessboard and to forge a future that’s now not outlined solely by ties to Russia or dependence on China. By deepening cooperation with Azerbaijan, Ashgabat is aligning with a rustic that has efficiently leveraged its geography and assets to develop into an important vitality hall between East and West.
The implications go far past vitality. This partnership has the potential to reshape the geopolitical dynamics of the Caspian basin and create new patterns of interdependence throughout Eurasia. A profitable Trans-Caspian fuel hyperlink wouldn’t solely diversify Turkmenistan’s export routes but in addition improve Europe’s vitality safety, strengthen Azerbaijan’s position as a regional vitality hub, and ship a transparent message that the Caspian is open for strategic cooperation — on Turkmenistan’s phrases.
The query now could be whether or not Europe — and particularly Brussels — will reply in variety. Because if it does, the Caspian Sea would possibly lastly develop into greater than a geographic boundary. It may emerge as a strategic bridge — linking not simply vitality infrastructure, however political pursuits, financial alternative, and a shared imaginative and prescient of connectivity throughout a fractured continent. For Turkmenistan, this isn’t merely a pipeline. It is a path towards relevance, resilience, and renewal.
By Asif Aydinly
